Student List Challenges Vucic in Serbia's Tightest Election Since 2012

Serbia holds a parliamentary election on Sunday that political scientists describe as the most competitive contest since the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) took power in 2012.

Thousands gathered in Belgrade on Thursday evening for the final rally of the Student List, a coalition of candidates supported by a student movement that has protested against the government for nearly two years. Many attendees walked for days from across the country to reach the capital, turning the event into a display of solidarity. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers had visited villages and neighborhoods across Serbia and found strong local support. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and Student List candidate, described the atmosphere as smelling like freedom. The evening concluded with a kolo, a traditional circle dance.

The movement emerged after a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, killing 16 people. Students have framed the election as an opportunity to address corruption and demand accountability for the disaster. They have also attempted to bridge ideological, social, and foreign policy divisions that have traditionally defined Serbian politics.

Meanwhile, the SNS held its own closing rally a few kilometers away. The party argued that voting for it ensures stability, continuity, and prosperity, while a change in government risks chaos. Former President Aleksandar Vucic told supporters that opponents had tried to destroy the country on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros. He portrayed the election as a fight for Serbia's future and sovereignty, accusing rivals of serving foreign interests.

Violence has marked the campaign. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These included physical confrontations, attacks on campaigners, and attempts to seize campaign banners. CRTA reported that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning. The group also noted that police were often slow to protect opposition candidates and supporters. In its report, CRTA stated that the campaign was neither free nor fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms. The report found that nearly three-quarters of political airtime on national television went to government representatives, while more than 80% of coverage of the Student List was negative.

The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, and in some cases family holiday packages, to vote for the SNS. Independent media have also reported on alleged links between party-connected individuals and criminal networks, though political scientist Dusan Spasojevic doubts these reports will alter the outcome.

Authorities have warned for weeks that students, allegedly aided by foreign intelligence services, are preparing street violence. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Spasojevic said a decisive victory for either side would be the best scenario, but polls indicate a narrow margin that could lead to a post-election crisis. He added that a slim SNS win would likely be contested, with the movement vowing to defend every vote. An EU Commission spokesperson told Deutsche Welle that key recommendations for improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented and emphasized that democracy and the rule of law are central to the accession process. Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.

Polls suggest the Student List could win more than 40% of the vote. Spasojevic noted that the movement has generated hope and substantial support. The international response, particularly from the European Union, may play a key role in preventing escalation and persuading authorities to accept defeat and avoid a heavy-handed response to protests.