Tight Senate Margins and Ranked Choice Voting Could Delay Control Decisions

Control of the U.S. Senate may take days or weeks to determine, while the House outcome is likely to resolve sooner due to wider margins.

Seven states are particularly competitive for Senate seats, and two states use ranked choice voting, a process that can prolong the count. Unlike the House, where the outcome rarely hinges on a single seat, the Senate majority could depend on the result of just one race.

Polls close in six states at 7 p.m. Eastern Time, including Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is expected to defeat Republican Representative Mike Collins for the Senate seat. The gubernatorial race between Republican billionaire Rick Jackson and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms remains tight. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws require counties to report results within one hour of polls closing.

South Carolina presents an unexpectedly tight Senate contest. Senator Darline Graham, who replaced her late brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democratic nominee Annie Andrews. National polls describe the race as a toss-up in a heavily Republican state, while the Cook Political Report indicates a Republican advantage.

North Carolina and Ohio close polls at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time. North Carolina's Republican-held Senate seat is considered the most likely Democratic flip. Former Governor Roy Cooper challenges former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Democrats have not won a Senate seat in the state since 2008. In Ohio, Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Senator Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. The gubernatorial race features Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in polls, following recent attack ads against Acton.

Polls close in more than half the country by 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Key Senate races include Maine, where incumbent Republican Susan Collins faces Democrat Troy Jackson, and Florida, where incumbent Ashley Moody is poised to win over Democrat Angie Nixon. Florida also faces a first test of its newly redrawn congressional maps, with seven competitive House seats. Pennsylvania has seen its competitive House races shift toward Democrats in recent weeks.

The 9 p.m. Eastern Time block includes major states such as Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, and Texas. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton for governor, a race that has not produced a Democratic statewide winner since the early 1990s. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek competes against Republican Ashley Hinson for an open Senate seat. Michigan's governor's race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers remains a toss-up despite heavy media attention.

Polls in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington close at 11 p.m. Eastern Time. California’s congressional map was redrawn in 2025 after voters approved new boundaries in response to redistricting efforts. This change made the state less competitive for Republicans, and close races have tilted toward Democrats in the final weeks.