A quarter of a million dollars and a 20-year streak: The high cost of running against the odds

George Austin spent $250,000 of his own money to run for Congress in Connecticut’s second district. The Democrat holding that seat has won reelection for 20 years, and the party has captured every U.S. House seat in the state since 2008. Austin, a home builder and former football coach, entered the race as a Republican in a deep blue stronghold.

Across the country, 80% of congressional races are rated solid for one party or the other. Candidates who challenge the dominant local party often campaign with minimal staff, limited donors, and no dedicated office. Lisa Kinney, a former state senator, is running as a Democrat for the single House seat in Wyoming. The state has sent only Republicans to Congress since the late 1970s.

Kinney campaigns from a van, traveling to diners and community events to talk to voters. She says she wants to offer a moderate perspective that she believes is missing from the national debate. Her opponent has run television ads pairing her with progressive figures like Bernie Sanders and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Kinney calls the comparison bemusing but continues to knock on doors and shake hands.

In Connecticut, Austin faces a different set of obstacles. He serves as his own scheduler and volunteer coordinator. He notes that voters often disengage once they learn he is a Republican, regardless of his local policy positions. He tries to steer conversations toward bipartisan issues like congressional gridlock and artificial intelligence guardrails.

Eric Ostermeier, founder of Smart Politics, notes that 19 state delegations currently consist entirely of members from the same political party. This is the highest number seen since 1953. Ostermeier says gerrymandering contributes to this trend, but voters also sort themselves geographically over time. He adds that state candidates struggle to distinguish themselves from their national party brand.

Kinney’s husband, Rodney Lang, says the campaign strengthens the local party even if they lose on election day. Kinney acknowledges the difficulty of the task but maintains she can win. Austin says the race is not a lost cause, even if the odds are long. He argues that challenging entrenched power is worthwhile for working families who feel underrepresented.

In Connecticut, 46 of the 187 state legislative seats are uncontested this year. Nationally, a large share of state legislative races are decided before voters head to the polls. Austin says he is running to show that regular people can enter the arena. He warns that the process requires sacrifice and a clear motivation, noting that it is not for everyone.