Arab blocs face choice between Netanyahu and opposition as both Israeli camps miss 61-seat threshold

Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition and the Jewish Israeli opposition are both projected to miss the 61-seat majority required to govern the 120-seat Knesset. Current polls indicate that Palestinian citizens of Israel will hold between 12 and 15 seats, split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List. This arithmetic places the decision of the next government in the hands of a community that comprises roughly 20% of the population.

The Joint List includes Ta'al, headed by Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for more than two decades. Tibi stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a critical tool for removing the current government. He described his choice as one between the far-right bloc and the opposition, noting that neither side offers an ideal platform. The opposition largely opposes a Palestinian state and supports the settlement movement in the West Bank.

Netanyahu and his allies have worked to make a coalition with Arab politicians politically toxic. Campaign posters on the right use slogans such as "Bibi or Tibi," despite the fact that Israel has only had two Palestinian ministers in its history. Raleb Majadele served for two years, and Issawi Frej served for just over a year. However, previous promises to avoid such alliances have been broken, including in 2021 when Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a coalition with Naftali Bennett.

Fear is driving many Palestinian voters to the polls this week. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the biggest motivation for participation. He cited the destruction in Gaza, militant violence in the West Bank, and rising racism inside Israel as key factors. Voters are concerned about another four years under far-right ministers, with some describing the current situation as a choice between "bad and worse."

Distrust of the political system has historically depressed turnout. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article regarding the 7 October attacks. The ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. In contrast, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over his use of racist language was not upheld. These events have led some, such as journalist Nagham Zbeedat, to abstain on principle.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to accelerate policies of annexation and ethnic cleansing. He described the upcoming vote as a measure of mitigation, where voters assess the difference between a right-wing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kafr Qassim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 residents who had broken an unknown curfew.