Opposition Bloc Holds 54-Seat Lead as Trump Aides Prepare Backup Plan

The Israeli opposition bloc holds a 54-seat lead in the latest Maariv poll, a margin that has prompted US President Donald Trump’s advisers to begin drafting plans for a post-Netanyahu administration. US officials told Axios that the White House is optimistic about working with the prime minister’s rivals should they win the upcoming election scheduled for October 27.

The shift in strategy reflects internal division within the administration. Many of the president’s closest advisers reportedly opposed his decision to endorse Netanyahu, arguing that the United States should have remained neutral in the race. One adviser described the political calculus with a blunt assessment: "[Netanyahu] is the devil [Trump] knows."

Vice President JD Vance declined to take a public stance on the contest this week. Speaking to reporters, he stated, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters."

Strains within the administration over Israeli policy have intensified in recent months. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack voiced concerns about the Netanyahu government’s military operations in Syria. Following strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province, Barrack labeled the attack an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team have maintained closer ties with the prime minister but have expressed frustration with specific policy choices. They believe Israel could do more to bolster the Lebanese government. Additionally, Rubio’s team has criticized Netanyahu for failing to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.

The Maariv survey indicates a preference for coalition governance if the election results are fragmented. Sixty percent of respondents said they would prefer a unity government in that scenario, while 23% favored another election. Of those who supported a unity government, 33% wanted a candidate from the opposition bloc to lead it, compared with 19% who preferred Netanyahu.