Moon Fueling Dispute: NASA Panel Cites 22 Flights, Musk Says 6 To 8

Getting astronauts to the lunar surface in 2028 depends on a launch count that NASA and SpaceX have not agreed on. Filling a Starship depot for a Moon mission would take about three months if SpaceX were launching twice a week by the end of 2027 at the pace one reporter calculated for the higher figure. More tanker flights mean more launches, more cost, and more chances for a problem before a crew leaves Earth.

The Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel met publicly on Thursday. Panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, said fueling SpaceX's lunar lander is a major risk for Artemis IV and added, "We need to keep our eyes on numerous required fuelings for the lander. I think the last estimate is around 22 flights." Ars Technica's Eric Berger posted that remark on X. Elon Musk replied, "That's way too high. Actual number will be more like 6 to 8."

The gap between the two figures comes down to vehicle capability and propellant behavior. Starship burns nearly all its propellant reaching Earth orbit, so a depot is launched first, tankers dock and transfer propellant one at a time, and the lunar lander fills up before departing. How much each tanker delivers and how much boils off in the cold of orbit determines the total. NASA's figure reflects Starship's current lift capacity, while Musk's range assumes a more capable vehicle.

Musk has pushed back on higher counts before. In 2021 he called a government document's figure of 16 launches "extremely unlikely" and said eight tankers would be the most needed. The hardware to settle the question now is not yet flying. SpaceX plans refueling with its upgraded V3 Starship, and Precourt said Artemis IV carries "a large number of firsts." He also commended NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman's team for removing obstacles for SpaceX and Blue Origin, whose Blue Moon lander does not rely on orbital refueling for its first mission.