NPR Marist Poll: Democrats Hold 8-Point House Edge as Enthusiasm Lags in Key Groups

A new poll conducted by NPR, PBS News, and Marist finds that Democrats maintain an eight-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters. The survey, fielded among 1,289 registered voters on October 19 and 20, indicates that Democrats are positioned to gain seats in the House of Representatives, though the margin is smaller than among all registered voters. The margin of error for likely voters is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 40 percent among likely voters, with 59 percent disapproving. Fifty-three percent of both registered and likely voters said they strongly disapprove of his performance, a figure that ties the highest recorded in this polling series last month. Trump’s personal favorability among likely voters is 37 percent, compared to 59 percent who view him unfavorably.

Voter enthusiasm presents a mixed picture for the Democratic Party. While 71 percent of Democratic likely voters described themselves as very enthusiastic to vote, the level of excitement is lower among key demographic pillars. Only 42 percent of likely voters under age 45 and 53 percent of non-white likely voters reported high enthusiasm. In contrast, 68 percent of MAGA-aligned likely voters and 66 percent of white women without college degrees reported being very enthusiastic.

Cost of living remains the primary concern for voters. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said their personal finances have worsened over the past year. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent in Arizona, cited high food and gas prices as a strain. "They're too expensive for everybody, no matter who you voted for," Maurice said.

Attitudes toward change favor challengers. Fifty-five percent of likely voters said it is more important to elect candidates with new ideas. Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Texas, described the election as a referendum on the party in power. "This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power," Agan said.

Trust in the electoral process is high overall, with 75 percent of likely voters confident that state and local governments will run a fair and accurate election. However, Republicans expressed less confidence than Democrats. A quarter of Republican likely voters said their candidate should probably or definitely challenge the results if they lose, a sentiment shared by twice as many MAGA supporters as democratic socialists.

The next major milestone for these candidates is the November 3 general election, where voters will select representatives for the 119th Congress.