Pulido leads Texas 15th polls despite 18-point Republican map advantage

Texas’s 15th congressional district currently shows a Democratic lead of five or six points, a margin that persists despite a 2025 redistricting effort that granted Republicans a notional 18-point majority. The shift occurs in the Rio Grande Valley, a region where President Donald Trump secured a record 55% of the Hispanic vote in 2024.

The political mood in the area has evolved since the 2024 presidential election. During that campaign, border crossings were at their lowest level in decades, a metric that bolstered Trump’s standing among local voters. However, the operational intensity of enforcement has increased, changing the local calculus for many households. In July 2026, Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide, a larger share than any other state.

Local leaders and business owners report tangible economic impacts from these enforcement actions. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who led the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Trump in three previous cycles but plans to support a Democrat in November. He cited a specific instance where an acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk to four or six members, illustrating how the crackdown affects labor availability. Guerrero noted that voters were not informed about the extent of the administration’s enforcement strategy.

Religious and community figures are also vocalizing opposition to current practices. Father Roy Snipes, who has served the La Lomita Catholic Chapel for nearly 50 years, addressed a congregation of about 30 people regarding ICE actions. He stated that there is no good excuse to detain and deport poor neighbors. The chapel, located about 200 yards from the Rio Grande, survived attempts to seize its land for a border wall during Trump’s first term.

Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the local economy rather than the national party brand. He emphasized the distinct nature of the region, telling voters that this is not New York or Los Angeles. His opponent, Republican Tano Tijerina in the neighboring 28th district, acknowledged that national political headwinds are real, even as he credited Trump with breaking through barriers. Rep. Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, also noted that the administration has secured the border, though he recognized the difficulty of the upcoming race.

The midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026. Polls taken since late summer indicate a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas disapprove of the president and favor Democrats. Republican consultant Mike Madrid pointed out that Latinos are more likely than other groups to identify as independents. A swing back to Democrats in this district could have implications beyond Texas, potentially putting a US Senate seat in play that the party has not won in more than 30 years.