Analysts expect new Iran strikes after Nov. 3 vote

More than 7,000 people have died in Iran since the U.S. and Israel began their two wars with the country. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst, warns that a third round of fighting will likely begin after the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. He calls this new phase almost inevitable.

Citrinowicz served as an intelligence official in the Israeli military for over 20 years. He now works with the Institute for National Security Studies. He told CBC News that President Donald Trump has only bad and worse options in the region. The U.S. and Israel first struck Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025. That 12 day war ended in a fragile ceasefire. Fighting returned in February after a large U.S. military buildup. Israel then targeted senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz expects the next attacks to hit Gulf energy facilities. He also predicts strikes on civilian infrastructure and communications, such as internet lines under the Strait of Hormuz. Iran might send land armies into limited attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. Those countries host U.S. bases. The goal would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy. Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports. Iran has targeted commercial ships, pushing up global energy costs.

On Thursday, President Trump accused Iran of trying to inflate oil prices before the vote. He claimed the country was making up fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agrees that ship attacks aim to pressure Washington. Iranian demands include sanctions relief, reparations, and the release of frozen assets. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have tried to restart talks for weeks without success.

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution said the war has pushed Iranian leadership to double down on revolutionary ideology. She warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah could target soft economic sites like airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said Trump lacks a clear goal. He argued that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate. If you are asking them to change their identity, that is not going to succeed, Sadjadpour said.

The human toll is heavy across the region. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Yemen. The Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, but it is unknown if Trump will approve it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and bringing down the Iranian regime. He faces voters in a close race in the coming days.

Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government. The danger is that political calculation combines with an Iranian development that Netanyahu may inflate. This could produce an unnecessary attack. Sadjadpour argued that diplomacy is not dead but has been narrowed. He said Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit.