66.4% of Lebanese Shiites Back Transfer of Hezbollah Weapons to State

A September poll of 800 Lebanese Shiites found that 66.4% want Hezbollah's arsenal transferred to the Lebanese state, while 29.6% said the group should retain its weapons. Statistics Lebanon conducted the survey, and results surfaced in mid-October via Israel's public broadcaster KAN and the Lebanese site Kataeb.org.

The same survey showed 71.1% of respondents believe war and peace decisions belong to the Lebanese state alone, with 5.9% saying Hezbollah's leadership should take a larger role in shaping the country's direction. Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces stood at 78.5%, and 51.1% identified the army as the institution best placed to guarantee long-term security, compared with 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

Other findings complicate that shift. Some 67.4% said Hezbollah either failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only part of them, and 42.1% reported disappointment, anger or concern about its leadership and the conflict's consequences. Even so, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the group, including 37.1% who reported a great deal of trust. KAN's Roi Kais said Hezbollah's support networks and status within the sect still sustain its strength as long as no other entity fills that space.

A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International, cited in a June 10 analysis for Israel's Institute for National Security Studies by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, pointed the opposite direction: 87.5% of Shiite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah, and 7.9% supported giving up its weapons. More than 90% opposed ties with Israel. The gap between the two polls leaves open whether wording or agenda drove the difference.

Mizrahi and Levanoni attribute Hezbollah's influence to its social and economic networks, political power, and the historical marginalization of Lebanon's Shiites, and said intimidation has discouraged dissent. They argued that weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army plus Western and Gulf financial support so the state can replace services Hezbollah provides.

On the ground, KAN reported that property owners in the southern city of Tyre opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing Israeli strikes; such branches have been hit before. Hezbollah has announced aid of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. Hezbollah has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024, and a new war broke out in March 2026 that caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon.

A June 10 analysis by Mizrahi and Levanoni said Hezbollah's influence rests on its social and economic networks, its political power, and the historical marginalization of Lebanon's Shiites, and that intimidation has discouraged dissent within the community. They wrote that weakening the group would require a stronger Lebanese army and Western and Gulf financial support so the state can replace services Hezbollah provides.