Netanyahu Bloc Projected to Hold 53 Knesset Seats, Falling Short of Majority

Local media projections indicate that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc will secure 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while opposition parties are expected to win 48 seats and Arab-led parties 19. This distribution means no single faction holds the 61 seats required to form a governing majority. Final results are anticipated as early as Thursday evening once approximately 500,000 absentee ballots from military personnel, diplomats, and others are tallied.

The outcome leaves Israelis facing a complex period of coalition negotiations. Netanyahu retains his position as prime minister until a new government is established. The central question for the weeks ahead involves whether Jewish parties that campaigned to remove Netanyahu will join forces with Arab-led parties, a historic alliance that has not occurred since a brief period in 2021. Alternatively, some opposition parties may prioritize ending Netanyahu’s tenure over their campaign promises and enter a coalition with his bloc.

Gadi Eisenkot, the chief rival to Netanyahu and former military chief, addressed supporters early Wednesday. He described a vision for a government serving all citizens and reflecting the public will. While he did not explicitly name Arab parties in that specific address, he has previously stated he is open to cooperating with them to reach the necessary majority. The Joint List, one of the prominent Arab parties, declared late Wednesday that it is open to political cooperation, citing strong voter turnout as a sign of strength.

Protests in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem demanded the formation of a government inclusive of Arab-led parties. In the capital, rallies took place overnight, reflecting the conservative demographic’s engagement with the coalition question. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s Likud party claimed that Arab-led parties stole the election and requested an investigation by the election committee. The committee reported a low number of irregularities in the voting process and stated that no specific evidence supported Likud’s allegations.

President Isaac Herzog will task a leader with forming the next government next week. Tradition suggests this role goes to the leader of the party with the most votes, though it is not a requirement. Both Herzog and Eisenkot have indicated a desire to avoid a new election early next year. Such a repeat vote would raise questions about whether Arab citizens and thousands of Israelis who traveled home to vote would participate again.

The election occurred against a backdrop of deep societal divisions, including disputes over military service for the ultra-Orthodox population and criticism of Israel’s conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption allegations and accusations that he delayed hostage deals for political gain. The threat of renewed strikes against Iran adds further uncertainty, with experts suggesting Netanyahu might use a new war to press for a unity government. This strategy could delay a public inquiry into the security failures that preceded the Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023.

Brosli Elias, a resident of Nazareth, expressed cautious hope regarding the results. "God willing, we will have something for us in the government, something that will bring us our rights," Elias said. The Arab community, which constitutes 20 percent of the population, is watching closely as coalition talks begin.