New ballots could shift 12 seats

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a contest where new citizens hold disproportionate power. The Israel Democracy Institute estimates that 640,000 individuals aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote. This group represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choice could determine the outcome for up to 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Three factors define the current political weight of this demographic. First, turnout is projected to be high. A May survey by the IDI found that between 80% and 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to participate. For comparison, youth turnout in the 2024 US presidential election was 47%, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement.

Second, policy priorities are consistent across demographic lines. In both major surveys, national security and the cost of living ranked as the top concerns for young Jews and Arabs. Tammy Hoffman, who heads the education policy program at the IDI, attributed this to the lived experience of this generation. She noted that these voters were in junior high during the pandemic, witnessed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. "They are worried about their future," Hoffman said.

Third, political leanings remain fluid. Hoffman observed that while Jewish Israeli voters have generally moved rightward over the past two decades, military service may counteract this trend by raising questions about war goals. An N12 poll conducted on September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that same poll, 16% of respondents said they would vote for Yashar, the party led by Gadi Eisenkot, and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud.

The opposition "change bloc" aims to remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power. He has served continuously since 2009, with the exception of a brief period between 2021 and 2022. Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, told the Jewish Telegraphic Agency earlier this month that she is voting "so we can change the future of this country." She spoke before an event in Tel Aviv where politicians addressed more than 1,000 first-time voters. Chernyvsky, who is in an army preparation program in the Negev, has not chosen a party but said she will "probably" support either the Democrats, led by Yair Golan, or Yashar.

Individual motivations vary widely across the political spectrum. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old from Jerusalem currently in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to support the Religious Zionist party. He disagrees with leader Bezalel Smotrich's approach in Gaza but supports his policies in the West Bank. "We need a strong, secure Israel," Gross said. His program-mate, Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herziliyah, will vote for the change bloc. Shiloh wants the next government to require ultra-Orthodox men to serve in the IDF and to lower living costs.

Economic concerns drive many voters. A 22-year-old reservist, identified as Sgt. M due to IDF anonymity regulations, cited the cost of tuition, books, food, and housing as primary reasons for voting for the Democrats. In Shef-Amra, Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, wants an Arab party that will close resource gaps and tackle crime. He is urging his friends to vote and stated, "I won't leave the country. This is my land, this is my home."

The IDI co-sponsored the recent voter event with the Yigal Allon Center. Hoffman emphasized that Israel is a young country with a high birth rate. "If their turnout is high, as our research suggests, first-time voters will make a difference," she said. A separate Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth poll found that 67% of young respondents were certain they would vote, and another 19% thought they would. Mock elections in high schools showed support for Yashar and Beyachad, the latter led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, with little support for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.