Sixty-four thousand young Israelis face a choice that could swing twelve Knesset seats

On October 27, an estimated 640,000 Israelis between the ages of 18 and 22 will cast their first ballots. These voters represent nearly 10% of the total electorate and hold the potential to determine as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) projects that high participation rates in this demographic could shift the balance of power in the upcoming election.

Surveys indicate strong intent to vote among this group. A May study by the IDI found that 80% to 95% of potential young Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or likely participate. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to vote. This engagement exceeds youth turnout in the United States, where only 47% voted in the 2024 presidential election. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth confirmed this motivation, with 67% of young respondents certain they would vote and another 19% thinking they would.

For these voters, national security and the cost of living are the top priorities. Tammy Hoffman, head of the IDI education policy program, noted that this generation has lived through the pandemic, judicial reform protests, and the October 7 attack during their formative years. She stated that their adolescence was marked by instability, leaving them worried about their future. Many first-time voters are currently serving in the Israel Defense Forces or will do so soon, a factor that may influence their political choices regardless of traditional partisan alignment.

Political leanings among this group show a complex mix. A September N12 poll found that 74% of young people identified as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. If the election were held at that time, 16% would have voted for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and 14% for Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. Hoffman noted that mock elections in high schools often show support for opposition parties like Yashar and Beyachad, challenging the assumption that all Jewish youth vote for right-wing factions.

Individual voters cite specific grievances in their decision-making. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to vote for an opposition party to oust the current government, which she describes as corrupt. She questioned why the war has lasted three years and why it took two years to return hostages. Omer Gross, 18, from Jerusalem, plans to vote for the Religious Zionist party led by Bezalel Smotrich, citing support for the West Bank despite disagreements with Gaza policies.

Other young voters focus on economic and social equity. Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herzliya, intends to vote for the Change bloc, citing the high cost of living and the need for Haredi men to serve in the army. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, is voting for the left-of-center Democrats party due to student debt and the difficulty of balancing studies with reserve duty. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shefa-Amra, plans to vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and crime in the Arab community, stating he wants to see more government funding allocated to his sector.

The election takes place against a backdrop of long-term political stability for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held office since 2009 except for a brief period from 2021 to 2022. Young voters are entering this contest with distinct views on security, economics, and social justice, setting the stage for a potentially decisive outcome in the Knesset.