Kane leads bookmakers for 2026 Ballon d'Or in London

The 2026 Ballon d'Or winner will be announced at the London Palladium on Sunday. The award for football's best player of the 2025-26 season has narrowed to three candidates: Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane.

Predictions are split between data models and betting markets. Avisia, a French artificial intelligence firm, rates Yamal as the favorite with a 23 percent probability. Kane follows at 21 percent, and Mbappe is third at 19 percent, tied with 2024 winner Rodri. Lionel Messi rounds out the top five at 18 percent. Avisia correctly predicted the top five finalists for the 2025 award. Bookmakers place Kane at the top with approximately 70 percent of the odds.

The candidates have different public approaches to the campaign. Yamal, a 19-year-old Spanish winger, and Mbappe, the 2018 World Cup winner from France, have both voiced support for themselves. Kane, who has scored frequently this season, has remained more reserved. Former players have weighed in, with Atletico Madrid manager Diego Simeone backing Messi. Simeone noted that Messi played at a high level after the World Cup despite his age. Marco Materazzi, a former Italy international, agreed, stating Messi is in a different league at 38.

Current teammates also offered endorsements. Jude Bellingham supported Kane, describing him as hard-working and honest. Anthony Gordon backed his Barcelona teammate Yamal, calling him on a whole other level. Aurelien Tchouameni praised Mbappe's incredible season at Real Madrid.

Individual statistics favor Mbappe and Kane. Mbappe finished as La Liga's top scorer with 25 goals and the Champions League's leading marksman with 15. He also won the World Cup Golden Boot and set a record for the most World Cup goals with 12. Kane scored 73 goals last season, the highest total since Messi recorded 82 in 2011-12.

Team trophies influence the decision. Mbappe won no major prizes with club or country. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but finished third at the World Cup. Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona. Historical trends favor winners with major silverware. Only four of the previous 19 Ballon d'Or winners failed to take the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America in their winning year.

If Yamal wins, he will become the youngest recipient in the award's history. The current record is held by Brazil's Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won in 1997.