San Diego Wave's Playoff Seed: A 55-Point Tie Decides Home Advantage

San Diego Wave and Washington Spirit will both finish the 2026 regular season with 55 points if the Wave fail to beat Bay FC on Sunday. This specific point total places the Wave in a precarious position regarding the second seed, as the Spirit hold the advantage in goal differential.

The scenario emerged after the Wave failed to secure a decisive win over Boston Legacy. KC Current’s victory over Washington over the weekend kept the Spirit in contention. The Wave currently stand at 17 wins, 8 losses, and 4 draws. Boston Legacy holds an identical record. The outcome of Sunday’s matches will determine the final standings for the top two seeds.

The Wave have won their last five matches. A victory over Boston would have locked in the second seed and opened a path to the top spot. That path required Gotham FC to drop points against Utah Royals and the Wave to beat Bay FC. Those conditions were not met. The Wave now face a different calculation. Washington plays the Chicago Stars, who sit last in the league. Chicago is on an eight-game winless streak, including a 3-0 loss to Washington on Sept. 30.

Bay FC enters the match with a 7-16-6 record. They sit two positions ahead of Chicago in 14th place. Bay FC defeated the Wave 1-0 at Snapdragon Stadium on May 3. The Wave head coach, Jonas Eidevall, outlined the team’s objectives. He stated, “We need to take a point to get the second seed and we need to win in order to put pressure on Gotham.”

Defender Kristen McNabb noted the team’s focus over the final weeks. She described the approach to recent games as treating them like “six finals.” The team aims to finish strongly to secure the best possible playoff position.

Securing the top seed would earn the Wave a second Supporters’ Shield in its five-year history. It would also set up a potential quarterfinal match against Seattle Reign. Seattle currently holds the eighth seed. The Reign have dominated the rivalry, winning 10 of their last 14 meetings against San Diego. The Wave have won only one of those games.

The Wave confirmed on Thursday that they will host a quarterfinal at Snapdragon on Nov. 6. This match is a potential meeting between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. Washington is the likely opponent. The Spirit could fall to fifth place if they lose to Chicago while Los Angeles and Kansas City win, but that scenario is unlikely.

Gotham FC must win or draw against Utah Royals to claim the first seed. Utah has one win in its last five games and has been shut out in its last two. Gotham has lost only twice in its last 17 matches. The 2026 NWSL Championship is scheduled for Nov. 21 at Audi Field in Washington, D.C.